Exodus: How Migration Is Changing Our World

Exodus: How Migration is Changing Our World (2013) is a nonfiction study of migration by Paul Collier, a prominent economist and professor of public policy at the University of Oxford. As an expert in development economics, Collier draws on his extensive research on global inequality, migration, and economic development to analyze the effects of migration on individuals, host countries, and countries of origin.

This study guide uses the 2013 Oxford University Press print edition.

Summary

The Prologue focuses on Collier’s grandfather, who faced anti-immigrant racism in Britain during World War I. This personal story sets up the book’s main topic: The effects of migration on individuals and societies. The book looks at why people migrate, how it affects those left behind, and the impact on host countries. Collier’s goal is to move beyond biased views and have fact-based discussions on migration policies.

Chapter 1 explores how migration is a highly emotional and politicized issue. Collier outlines competing perspectives: Migration can be seen as a triumph of the human spirit, an act of selfishness, or even reverse imperialism. Public policy on migration is inconsistent globally, shaped more by emotional reactions and moral biases than by evidence. He critiques how moral judgments often shape reasoning rather than the other way around, leading to polarized debates. Migration is often a taboo subject in liberal circles, constrained by fears of nationalism and racism. Collier calls for policies that balance the interests of all affected groups, challenging both open-border advocates and anti-immigration extremists.

Chapter 2 explains why migration from poor to rich countries tends to accelerate over time. It begins by examining the widening income gap between rich and poor nations, which creates strong economic incentives for migration. Diasporas—migrant communities in host countries—lower the costs and barriers for new migrants, creating a self-reinforcing cycle. As diasporas grow, they make migration easier, which leads to more migration and further growth of these communities. Migration is also influenced by economic, legal, and social factors. Collier argues that migration will not naturally stabilize, because income disparities and growing diasporas are persistent. He critiques simplistic models that assume migration will equalize global incomes, noting that modern migration is driven by efficiency rather than land acquisition. He concludes that migration pressures will continue to rise, and current policies are poorly designed to manage this acceleration.

Chapter 3 examines how future migration might affect host societies, focusing on the social rather than economic impacts. Collier argues that while moderate migration can bring social benefits through diversity, high levels of migration can undermine social cohesion. He introduces the concept of “mutual regard,” which supports trust, cooperation, and solidarity within societies. High migration levels may erode this mutual regard, leading to weaker public institutions, less willingness to redistribute wealth, and increased social tensions. He also explores how cultural differences influence integration. Migrants bring the moral codes and social norms from their home countries, which may not align with those of the host society. This can slow the process of assimilation, especially in societies where migrants form large, cohesive diasporas.

Chapter 4 analyzes the economic impacts of migration on both sending and receiving countries. Collier challenges the simplistic view that migration always benefits economies, arguing that the effects are complex and depend on various factors, including the skill levels of migrants and the structure of the host economy. High-skilled migrants can boost innovation and productivity, while low-skilled migration may depress wages for native low-skilled workers and strain public services. He discusses the “brain drain” phenomenon, whereby the emigration of skilled workers can harm the economies of their home countries. Collier notes that remittances sent back by migrants can offset some of these losses.

Chapter 5 examines how migration affects political stability and democratic institutions in host countries. Collier argues that large-scale migration can provoke political backlash, contributing to the rise of populist, nationalist, and anti-immigration parties. These reactions are often fueled by cultural concerns rather than economic factors, as indigenous populations may feel their national identity and social cohesion are threatened. Fears about immigration can be exploited by political leaders, leading to policy changes that reflect emotional reactions rather than empirical evidence.

In Chapter 6, Collier argues that migrants are the biggest economic winners from migration due to the stark wage differentials between rich and poor countries. Moving from a low-income country to a high-income one can result in income gains up to tenfold, primarily because of the superior productivity environments in wealthier nations. Collier explains that this productivity gap is mostly due to country-specific factors, not individual worker capabilities. Randomized migration studies, like visa lotteries in the US and New Zealand, show that migrants’ productivity rises significantly when they move to more developed countries, confirming that the differences are rooted in national contexts rather than personal skills. However, Collier notes that while migrants gain significantly, questions arise about who should benefit from these gains. He examines proposals for migrant-specific taxes that could redistribute wealth to countries of origin, arguing that while migrants benefit from the host country’s public capital, such taxes could hinder integration and fuel resentment. Instead, migrants often support their home countries through remittances.

In Chapter 7, Collier presents the paradox that migrants also face significant losses. As more migrants arrive, they compete primarily with each other rather than with native workers, leading to wage suppression within migrant communities. Additionally, the growing size of immigrant populations can increase social tensions and reduce trust within host societies, indirectly affecting the well-being of existing migrants. This collective disadvantage contrasts with the personal benefits migrants gain from bringing family members, creating conflicting interests. Collier also explores the psychological costs of migration. Case studies suggest that despite higher incomes, migrants often experience reduced happiness and social dislocation. The loss of cultural familiarity, separation from family, and challenges in adapting to new environments can offset economic gains.

In Chapter 8, Collier examines how migration affects the political landscape of countries of origin. He argues that migration can both weaken and strengthen governance. On one hand, the emigration of politically active individuals reduces domestic opposition to poor governance. On the other hand, diasporas can exert external pressure for political reform through advocacy, funding, and the transfer of democratic norms. Collier also highlights the role of returning migrants and diasporas in fostering democratic engagement. Studies in countries like Mali and Mexico show that migrants who have lived in democracies can encourage higher voter turnout and political participation or through their influence on families. However, he cautions that diasporas can also promote extremist views or outdated grievances.

In Chapter 9, Collier explores the economic impacts of migration on countries of origin, focusing on the “brain drain” and remittances. While the emigration of skilled individuals can deplete a country’s talent pool, it also creates incentives for educational attainment, as families invest in schooling with the hope of migration. Collier notes that in small, poor countries, the brain drain often outweighs these benefits, leading to a net loss of talent. Conversely, larger countries like China and India experience a “brain gain” because migration stimulates education more than it depletes talent. Remittances provide significant financial support to families in countries of origin, often surpassing foreign aid. They can buffer economic shocks, fund education, and support small businesses. However, he points out that excessive migration can reduce remittances, as migrants bring family members to host countries instead of sending money home.

In Chapter 10, Collier questions the idea that migration can greatly transform the economic or political landscape of countries of origin. He asserts that while migration provides critical financial and social support, it is not a catalyst for comprehensive development. The transformative potential lies more in internal reforms and local migration to urban centers within countries, which can drive economic growth and structural change.

In Chapter 11, Collier argues that while nationalism has often been viewed negatively due to its association with historical conflicts, it remains a powerful force for social cohesion and redistribution. He critiques trends that downplay the nation-state, arguing national identity better supports equity and public services than global or subnational entities. Collier also discusses how migration challenges national identity, particularly when multicultural policies promote cultural separation over integration. Collier warns that unchecked migration can erode the sense of shared identity necessary for societal cooperation and redistribution.

Chapter 12 outlines Collier’s proposal for comprehensive migration policies that balance the interests of all parties. He argues that migration should not be left to individual decisions alone, as this can lead to unsustainable acceleration, depopulating poor countries and straining social cohesion in rich ones. Collier suggests setting ceilings on migration rates, selecting migrants based on education, employability, and cultural compatibility, and promoting integration to enhance social cohesion. Collier also addresses the challenges of illegal immigration, proposing a system where undocumented migrants are granted legal status as guest workers, but must meet strict criteria to gain permanent residency. He advocates for policies that prioritize temporary migration for education and skill development, which benefit both migrants and their home countries.